Copyright Times Publishing Co. Aug 1, 2001

     Some of the hottest wines at B-21 Fine Wines & Spirits in Tarpon Springs aren't on the shelves. They're not in the warehouse either, and won't get there for at least a year. When they do arrive, they won't make it to the shelf.

They are the French wines of Bordeaux from last year, the 2000 vintage, the best grapes in decades. When they arrive next year or during the summer of 2003, many will go directly from the store to the patient customers who bought them by the case with cash upfront as "futures" this summer.

Though no one will open a bottle for at least a year, experts who tasted thousands of wines in barrel samples this March were unanimous and widespread in their praise: exceptionally flavorful, intense in color, with great aromas and many easy to drink young, from the famous first-growth chateaux such as Margaux to small vins de garage and $10 stuff from more modest villages.

In the opinion of the most important opiner, American wine critic and Bordeaux devotee Robert Parker: the best wines he has tasted from the region in 23 years.

"In terms of high notes, we've seen this in other years, but not such quality in so many places," said B-21's Bob Sprentall, who was invited to this year's tasting tour. The good wines were in the prestigious Medoc, Listrac and Pomerol and "down to Cotes de Bourg, Cotes de Blayes, Cotes de Franc, Cotes de Whatever."

Mike Kwasim, owner of Warehouse Liquors II in Tampa, came back from France recently just as impressed. After tasting other recent vintages, he said, "the 2000 almost knocked me off my chair."

Months of superlative verdicts started an unprecedented frenzy. Since April, wine fans, new and longtime, have been moved to ante up now. B-21 in Tarpon Springs, Pic Pac Liquors in St. Petersburg, and Bern's and Wines by Morrell in Tampa all report brisk business.

And prices are going up weekly, with top labels such as Haut Brion, for those who can get it, now selling for $3,000 a case.

You could say there has not been such hype since the great Champagne "shortage" of New Year's Eve 1999 nor a vintage as celebrated since, well, the Rhones of '98 or the California cabernet sauvignons and Tuscan and Piedmont reds of '97.

But that is unfair: This vintage is special.

These bottles will say 2000 on their labels, but so will wines all over the world. No, the strength of the Bordeaux vintage is its quality, and broad high quality is not an annual thing in Bordeaux.

Good weather and farming luck have been spotty in the past decade, with the best probably in '96, but Bordeaux hasn't had great vintages since 1990 and 1982. By Parker's account, 2000 tops those, which would put it up with the half-dozen best Bordeaux vintages in 100 years. The top Bordeaux wineries have restricted production in recent years, so there is no question that the 2000 vintage is good stuff and limited.

Yet you don't need to buy futures or French wine at all to appreciate one benefit of this vintage.

The fact that the quality in 2000 stretches down to the cheapest wines will restore the balance in the seesaw rivalry between Bordeaux and California and may force some common sense on soaring American prices.

Both regions make similar red wines. Americans make theirs mostly of a single varietal, mostly cabernet sauvignon or merlot. The Bordelaise usually mix those grapes with three others, petite verdot, cabernet franc and malbec, in a field blend or meritage that varies from label to label.

Partisans debate passionately (valiant upstart versus ancien regime, straightforward fruit versus European complexity), but popular success is shaped more by price, the strength of the dollar and good vintages.

Sunny California has had the advantage recently. Most years there are good to great, and the '90s have seen a steady string of exceptional crops; 1993 dropped in quality, but only 1998 was a disappointment.

Along the way, great vintages pumped up the top names - and prices - in Napa and Sonoma. Many high-quality cabernets now cost $40 to $80; cultists fight over a handful at $150.

Granted, top Bordeaux prices have reached elitist levels, but the 2000 Bordeaux will reintroduce many to good, affordable French wine and set a tough comparison for Californians. The lowest-priced Bordeaux, in the $15 to $25 bracket, are likely to win ratings of 88 to 92 from the critics, quality that could cost $50 in California.

Because Bordeaux releases its wines sooner, it will be showing its best stuff next year, while consumer grumbles about high prices for mediocre '98s from California are still fresh.

If you do buy wine futures, they don't carry the same kinds of risks as those for pork bellies and soybeans (and they taste better). A wine future basically buys wine in advance, a way for the winery or seller to get cash early in exchange for giving the buyer a lower price. When wine is sold on delivery, after the winery has stored it for two or three years, it commands a higher price.

Wine futures are new to many Americans, but they are an ancient practice in the wine trade from the chateaux of Bordeaux and the wine brokerages that line its docks to local wine stores and the many people in the middle.

Each fall in Bordeaux, the growers harvest and crush their grapes and then ferment them into wines. After tasting the results, they put their best blends in barrels, and in March they invite the city's wine brokers, importers and big buyers to try the barrel samples.

Then, while the wine is barely six months old and must still age at least a year in the cellar, each chateau begins to sell some of the vintage. It is sold in tranches, or slices, perhaps 20 percent of the crop, with the winery setting a wholesale price for cases in that slice. The brokers and importers buy, then offer the wines at a markup to others, who offer to them to American distributors, who offer them to retailers, and so on.

The winery gets paid early. Lots of money changes hands at all levels, but the actual wine won't be bottled and shipped for a year or two. (Less expensive wine is shipped a year later; the best a year later still.)

Around the world, smart retail merchants have always bought futures for their own inventory, depending on the vintage's price and predictions, and their own cash flow.

As Kwasim explained, "I do it for availability (to make sure he gets hard-to-get wines), for price, so I can be below the market," rather than paying the wholesale price two years from now.

A handful of specialty wine stores such as B-21 have always sold futures to retail customers, usually a small circle of connoisseurs who also want to get guaranteed availability and a better price.

Futures have always held some risk and some vulnerability to speculation and manipulation along the chain. Tranches this year, for instance, are being sliced thinly, and markups are moving fast (despite the objections of a few truly noble chateau owners).

It's also possible that the franc could drop so low that later prices would be cheaper, that supplies were manipulated, that the most expensive wine might not turn out as great as promised, that 2001 might be even better or that someone at some level could go out of business.

Stories circulate that in 1982, one of the last big futures- buying crazes, for instance, some retail customers and merchants were left holding receipts but no wine.

"There are a lot of people at the table," says Sprentall, who is selling futures for 100 wineries, "and a lot of down cards. Customers have to be sure they know who they're dealing with. And so do I."

What's happening now is the coincidence of a great French vintage with the new hypermarket of competitive collectors swapping information and ratings over 56K modems, the first great French vintage of the overinformed era.

At least four local wine stores are sending out fliers, faxes, e- mails and Web postings listing futures available, followed by price and the all-important ratings by Parker, the Wine Spectator or their own taster.

As with any limited product, money alone won't always get the best futures. At every level in the wine business, history counts. Merchants who bought lesser vintages in other years are remembered when better ones come; ditto for a store's old customers.

Given the limited allocations of some wines, not all merchants have access to all wines or very many of them, and many of the first few tranches are sold out.

Likewise, those who want to buy futures should look for merchants they trust, who have a good business history and will be in business two years from now. After all, you are giving someone cash now in exchange for nothing fancier nor more substantial than a receipt.

In addition, you must pay full price now, although some stores may accept half now and half by Dec. 1. Usually you must purchase a six- bottle lot, and often an entire case. Wines by Morrell is also selling mixed cases.

And you must wait - and give up hundreds or thousands of dollars of liquidity for a year or more - for the pleasure.

In choosing which to buy, remember that these wines are reported good at all levels. Wines with the highest "RP" and "WS" ratings or traditional fame already command prices of $150 to $300 per bottle. Lesser-known producers sell for $30 or less and still receive good marks, so some cases can be bought for $150 to $300.

If you want the biggest names to drink, futures may be the only way to get them. If you want them for speculative investment, you take a greater risk. It is a volatile market with fast-moving prices. Five or 10 years from now, if you wish to cash in, will the vintage and the cachet of the year 2000 pay off?

For those who don't buy now, there's consolation in old home truths about wine. There are bargain jewels, underpriced and overlooked in the lesser vintages, especially from the top names. In great years, even the lowliest winemakers can make fine stuff.

All of us will get a good taste of that when the 200Os arrive. The low-priced wines will cost a bit more next fall, but they'll still show why Bordeaux has been the toast of more than one century and why some call this "everyone's vintage."